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Work on COVID-19

Members of the Prevention Policy Modeling Lab have been actively engaged in modeling and analysis for the COVID-19 response.

PPML members helped to establish the COVID-19 Statistics, Policy Modeling and Epidemiology Collective (C-SPEC). C-SPEC has developed several open-source models for forecasts, scenario analysis and hospital planning.

We have developed a simple interactive model to evaluate the potential impact of contact tracing programs in the context of loosened physical distancing measures.

Bayesian Nowcasting

PPML members Nick Menzies and Ted Cohen, with Melanie Chitwood, Marcus Russi and colleagues, have developed state-level real-time estimates of SARS-CoV2 transmission using a novel Bayesian nowcasting approach.

Modeling for California counties

PPML member Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert leads ongoing efforts in collaboration with the California Department of Public Health to develop models, forecasts and scenario analyses for all counties in California using the SC-COSMO simulation modeling framework.

Publications on COVID-19 co-authored by PPML members


Bilinski A, Emanuel EJ. COVID-19 and excess all-cause mortality in the US and 18 comparison countries. JAMA. 2020;324(20):2100-2102.

Bilinski A, Emanuel E, Salomon JA, Venkataramani A. Better late than never: trends in COVID-19 infection rates, risk perceptions, and behavioral responses in the USA. J Gen Intern Med. 2021; doi: 10.1007/s11606-021-06633-8. Online ahead of print.

Bilinski A, Mostashari F, Salomon JA. Modeling contact tracing strategies for COVID-19 in the context of relaxed physical distancing measures. JAMA Netw Open. 2020; 3(8):e2019217.

Fung HF, Martinez L, Alarid-Escudero F, Salomon JA, Studdert DM, Andrews JR, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD; SC-COSMO Modeling Group. The household secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2: A rapid review. Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Oct 12: doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1558.

James LP, Salomon JA, Buckee CO, Menzies NA. The use and misuse of mathematical modeling for infectious disease policymaking: lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic. Med Decis Making. 2021. doi: 10.1177/0272989X21990391. Online ahead of print.

Khazanchi R, Beiter ER, Gondi S, Beckman AL, Bilinski A, Ganguli I. County-Level Association of Social Vulnerability with COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA. J Gen Intern Med. 2020; 35(9):2784-2787.

Kissler SM, Tedijanto C, Goldstein E, Grad YH, Lipsitch M. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science 2020; 368(6493):860-868. 

Kreuter F, Barkay N, Bilinski A, Bradford A, Chiu S, Eliat R, Fan J, Galili T, Haimovich D, Kim B, LaRocca S, Li Y, Morris K, Presser S, Salomon JA, Sarig T, Stewart K, Stuart EA, Tibshirani R. Partnering with Facebook on a university-based rapid turn-around global survey. Survey Research Methods 2020; 14(2): 159-62.

Larremore DB, Bubar KM, Grad YH. Implications of test characteristics and population seroprevalence on 'immune passport' strategies. Clin Infect Dis. 2020;ciaa1019.

Paltiel AD, Schwartz JL, Zheng A, Walensky RP. Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Jan;40(1):42-52. 

Paltiel AD, Zheng A, Sax PE. Clinical and economic effects of widespread rapid testing to decrease SARS-CoV-2 Transmission. Ann Intern Med. 2021. doi: 10.7326/M21-0510. Online ahead of print.

Paltiel AD, Zheng A, Schwartz JL. Speed Versus Efficacy: Quantifying Potential Tradeoffs in COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Jan 5:M20-7866. doi: 10.7326/M20-7866.

Paltiel AD, Zheng A, Walensky RP. Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(7):e2016818.

Peak CM, Kahn R, Grad YH, Childs LM, Li R, Lipsitch M, Buckee CO. Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study. Lancet Infectious Disease 2020; S1473-3099(20)30361-3.

Puglisi LB, Malloy GSP, Harvey TD, Brandeau ML, Wang EA. Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States. Ann Epidemiol. 2020;S1047-2797(20)30347-1.

Reitsma MB, Salomon JA, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD. Mapping inequality in SARS-CoV-2 household exposure and transmission risk in the USA. J Gen Intern Med. 2021. doi: 10.1007/s11606-021-06603-0. Online ahead of print.

Tuite AR, Zhu L, Fisman DN, Salomon JA. Alternative Dose Allocation Strategies to Increase Benefits From Constrained COVID-19 Vaccine Supply. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Jan 5. doi: 10.7326/M20-8137

Weinberger DM, Chen J, Cohen T, Crawford FW, Mostashari F, Olson D, Pitzer VE, Reich NG, Russi M, Simonsen L, Watkins A, Viboud C. Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020. JAMA Intern Med. 2020 Jul 1:e203391.

Weinstein MC, Freedberg KA, Hyle EP, Paltiel AD. Waiting for Certainty on Covid-19 Antibody Tests - At What Cost? N Engl J Med. 2020 Jun 5. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2017739. 

Yaesoubi R, Havumaki J, Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Gonsalves G, Salomon JA, Paltiel AD, Cohen T. Adaptive policies to balance health benefits and economic costs of physical distancing interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Med Decis Making. 2021. doi: 10.1177/0272989X21990371. Online ahead of print.