Methods for Estimating STI Incidence

This project aims to estimate the incidence of four major sexually transmitted infections (STIs): chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis.

Estimating the incidence and prevalence of STIs in the United States is necessary for policy and planning purposes, but direct evidence for these data is lacking and challenges in obtaining reliable estimates exist. Most commonly, cross-sectional data have been used to estimate prevalence, which are then used to back-calculate incidence estimates. Potential improvements of these estimation methods have been identified and will be addressed by this project.

This project will develop a statistical model for each of the four STIs to estimate age-level prevalence and incidence in the US. The models will incorporate all available data and allow for key sources of error in the generation process.

Our major research questions include:

• What are the levels and trends in prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in the United States over the period 2000-2014, by age and sex?
• What are the levels and trends in incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in the United States over the period 2000-2014, by age and sex?